It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
